Estonian shale-oil producers Eesti Energia, VKG and Kiviõli Keemiatööstus could produce a record 1.5 million tonnes of oil in 2027 if current plans are realised.
The projected total would make 2027 the strongest year on record for Estonia’s shale-oil industry. The outlook is supported by high global prices for petroleum products, writes Postimees Majandus.
Could 2027 mark a new production high?
The forecast covers the combined output of Estonia’s three shale-oil producers. It reflects plans to process more shale than ever before, provided production proceeds as expected and market conditions remain supportive.
The companies operate in a sector shaped by both production costs and access to shale. Eesti Energia has said it will concentrate mining at its Estonia mine as the closure process begins at its Narva quarry. The Estonia mine holds an estimated 60 million tonnes of resources, according to ERR.
Lower costs could support higher output
Andrus Durejko, CEO of Eesti Energia, said the company needs to increase volumes at a single mine to reduce its unit cost of oil shale. “We need to reduce the unit cost of shale, but we can only do that by concentrating production in a single mine and increasing volumes there,” he said in an ERR interview.
Eesti Energia mined 3.4 million tonnes of shale last year, while the company has estimated its production cost at about €30 per tonne. Durejko said the company is targeting an internal cost of €20 per tonne to make its oil and electricity production more competitive.
A narrow window for shale-oil growth
The projected 2027 record comes as the industry faces a longer-term regulatory challenge. Durejko said there will likely be a global market for Estonian shale until around 2050, but the potential phaseout of free CO₂ quotas could make production uncompetitive and effectively end the industry by 2035.
For now, high petroleum-product prices and planned production volumes could give Estonia’s shale-oil industry its strongest year to date in 2027.
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