Swedish-linked companies in Estonia plan to raise investment at a higher rate than in either of the other Baltic states, with 46 per cent intending to spend more over the next 12 months, a new survey shows.
The Baltic Business Climate Survey 2026, conducted by the Swedish embassies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, found that 69 per cent of surveyed companies in Estonia reported a profit in 2025, up from 56 per cent in the previous survey. Lithuania recorded 71 per cent and Latvia 66 per cent.
Investment intentions put Estonia at the top of the region: 46 per cent plan to increase investment, against 38 per cent in Lithuania and 34 per cent in Latvia, while 35 per cent expect no change. The embassy announcement puts the share intending to increase or maintain investment at 82 per cent across the region. The share of Estonian companies planning an increase has fallen from 59 per cent in the previous survey.
Profits rise as losses fall
A further 13 per cent break even, 14 per cent report a loss and 4 per cent cannot answer. The loss share has fallen from 31 per cent, the largest reduction in the Baltic survey. Larger employers do better: the profitable share is 63 per cent among companies with fewer than 50 local employees, 82 per cent at 50 to 249 and 88 per cent at 500 or more. Every respondent in industrial equipment, telecommunications, and IT and electronics reports a profit.
Tax and digital services stand out
Corporate taxation is rated highest in the region at 4.1 on a five-point scale, followed by licences and permits at 4.0 and regulation at 3.9. The reported effect of corruption falls to 1.4, the lowest in the Baltic survey. Digitalisation rates 4.5, the highest of eight operating conditions, ahead of the financial system at 4.2 and market access at 4.1. Lithuania scores 4.2 for work culture and physical infrastructure, while Latvia’s rating for licences, permits and approvals rises from 2.6 to 3.7.
Charlotte Wrangberg, Sweden’s ambassador to Estonia, said the two countries were long-standing trade partners and that it was encouraging that companies still regarded Estonia as a favourable business environment despite the difficult security situation.
A separate survey of foreign investors in the Baltics found that those based in Estonia were the most likely of the three to say they would choose the country again.
Skills remain the survey’s main constraint
Access to specialists and key personnel is Estonia’s lowest-rated condition at 3.8, falling to 3.5 among companies with 500 or more local employees. Respondents ask for stronger technical and vocational education, easier access to foreign labour, and continued investment in energy, transport and digital infrastructure.
“Access to skilled labour remains a common challenge across all three countries. Continued investment in skills and talent will be important for maintaining competitiveness and supporting future growth,” said Kata Fredheim, executive vice president at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga.
Geopolitics divides companies by sector
Estonia is the most evenly divided Baltic market on geopolitical change since 2022: 35 per cent report a decrease in business, 31 per cent an increase and 27 per cent no change. Among companies whose business changed, 60 per cent cite raw-material costs, with customer demand, investment plans and energy prices selected by 55 per cent each, supply chains by 51 per cent and tariffs by 36 per cent. Defence, energy, healthcare and mining companies report gains, while consumer, transport and forest-product companies report weaker demand and higher costs.
Fieldwork ran from April to June 2026. The sample contains 214 responses with fewer than eight unanswered questions, 85 from Estonia, 73 from Latvia and 56 from Lithuania. The previous survey in 2021 covered 58 companies in Estonia. SAAB, SEB and Stena Line supported the study.
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